Date & Time: 10/06/2022 @ 10:50 AM MST
Forecaster: Henz, D.
Parts of the County were rewarded with thunder and rain last night as an energetic wave of storms came off the higher terrain into the lower deserts. The well-discussed cutoff disturbance responsible for our recent unsettled conditions continues to spin near the AZ/NM/Mexico border region and will eventually settle in the northern Baja. In the meantime, shortwaves will continue to rotate across southcentral AZ presenting additional opportunities for storms/rain through the upcoming weekend. Temperature forecasts remain on track with daily highs still slowly trending downwards into the low 90s to go along with milder overnight lows in the 70s. Let’s all continue to enjoy the rain chances while they last.
For today plan on mostly sunny skies through the early afternoon before increasing clover cover and eventual storm chances. Afternoon temperatures will climb into the 92˚F-95˚F range around the Valley. Variable winds will continue to hover in the 5-10mph range with gustier conditions later today near any storm outflows. Storms will initiate across the higher terrain (Mogollon Rim/White Mtns) before trying to move south/west into portions of the County this afternoon/evening. Strong wind gusts, blowing dust, and brief heavy rain are possible with any storms that are able to make it into the foothill/lower desert regions. It’s important to remember storm coverage is still expected to be hit or miss meaning most of us will only see windy conditions and a lucky few with measurable rain.
Plan on a quiet start to Friday with plenty of morning and early afternoon sun before afternoon/evening storm chances return. Daytime highs will again climb into the low 90s across the Valley. Variable winds will continue to remain in the light category outside of any localized gusty conditions from outflows. We’re not expecting any big changes heading into the weekend. The disturbance to our south will help keep highs in the upper 80s to low 90s Saturday and Sunday. Storms will be possible both days but with better chances on Saturday afternoon/evening. Again higher terrain areas of eastern and southern AZ will be favored but parts of the lower deserts including the greater Phoenix area are sure to see at least some storm activity/rain. We’ll have more on this tomorrow and again Saturday (if warranted).